Posted by
Roxanna M. on Tuesday, December 04, 2007 5:56:47 PM
The authors of the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate said "with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure, but we do not assess that Iran is immovable."
The authors of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate said "with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years . . . Assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
The authors' disclaimer is that "a 'high confidence' judgment is not a fact or a certainty . . . and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong."
Well, no kidding.
Two years ago you saw no signs that Iran had discontinued its nuclear weapons program two years previously, but now four years hence you are "confident" that it did.
One could almost be persuaded that the authors had no idea what they were talking about if it wasn't for the fact that this assessment was arrived at by consensus.
As with global warming, it must be fact.