Posted by
Roxanna M. on Friday, November 05, 2010 12:54:34 PM
In April 2009, Stuart Rothenberg had this to say about Republican hopes for retaking the House in 2010:
"That idea is lunacy to be put to rest immediately . . . there are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not 'close to zero' or 'small." Zero . . . Big changes in the House require a political wave . . . The problem for Republicans is that they aren't yet in the position - and won't be in one by November of next year - to run on a pure message of change, or on pent-up demand for change . . . Waves are built on dissatisfaction and frustration, and there is little in national survey data that suggest most voters are upset with President Barack Obama's performance or the performance of his party."
By the time of last Tuesday's election, Mr. Rothenberg was predicting a 55-65 seat Republican gain.
After the 2008 election, James Carville wrote a book called "40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation," which was published in May 2009. Selected tidbits include:
"Republicans have no hope of making serious inroads into Democratic (sic) advantages in 2010, or likely in 2012 and 2014 and so on."
And, "American presidential politics is generally not a back-and-forth enterprise. There are eras in which one party dominates. Today, a Democratic (sic) majority is emerging, and it's my hypothesis, one I share with a great many others, that this majority will guarantee the Democrats remain in power for the next 40 years."
In October 2009, Paul Krugman said:
"Lots of buzz about the possibility that 2010 will be another 1994, with the triumphant conservative majority sweeping back into its rightful place of power. And of course, anything is possible . . . But the signs don't really point to that . . . Here in my home state, it's looking increasingly likely that Corzine will beat Christie after all."
Back in March 2010, Keith Olbermann of MSNBC said:
"Failed, Mr. Boehner. You lost. You blew it . . . I would think the 'will and desires of your fellow countrymen' should be pretty d**n clear by now: Your countrymen think your policies are of the past, and your tactics are of the gutter . . . And so I offer this olive branch to the defeated Republicans and Tea Partiers . . . You are rapidly moving from 'The Party of No,' past 'The Party of No Conscience,' towards 'The Party of No Relevancy.' You are behind the wheel of a political Toyota. And before the mid-terms, you will have been reduced to only being this generation's home for the nuts."
In April 2010, Mark Halperin of Time wrote:
" . . . the President is on a path to be a huge success by the time of November's midterm elections . . . The health care bill's passage is, of course, the White House's signal achievement."
As recently as September 10, Ryan Grim and Amanda Turkel of the Huffington Post wrote:
" . . . in 2010, a handful of House Democrats have an opportunity to prove that maxim ['that Democrats' path to power lies through the center'] wrong and to demonstrate that even in a tough year, by standing up for core progressive values, a Democrat can win a tough race . . . Tom Perriello in Virginia, Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire, Alan Grayson in Florida, Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio and John Hall in New York all represent swing districts and have cast votes that Washington consultants label 'tough.' Those tough votes, though, are paying off in unexpected ways. By bucking the conventional wisdom, the progressive Democrats have locked down support among their base and are winning over independents, while Blue Dogs face a dispirited electorate unsure what they stand for."*
Even more recently on September 30, Robert Shrum (who has never managed a winning campaign) said:
"I now think the Democrats will hold the Congress - yes, the House as well as the Senate . . . With the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand - the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush's narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP based showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it's the Democratic (sic) base that's stirring - and finally emerging - and the survey research is registering the shift."
And yet even more recently on October 16, Joe Conason said of a National Public Radio poll:
"The NPR survey shows the Democrats winning the 'message debate' in recent weeks . . . In the June poll, Democrats 'lost every message contest' by 12 points; now the Democratic (sic) message is prevailing. If this is a 'wave election' that will produce a Republican tsunami, voters ought to have tuned out the losing party by now . . . the NPR poll ratifies a growing strain of analysis suggesting that the Republican tide has crested - and that voter sentiment has begun to reverse direction."
Sixty seats and counting . . .
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* Tom Perriello lost to Robert Hurt, Carol Shea-Porter lost to Frank Guinta, Alan Grayson lost to Daniel Webster, Mary Jo Kilroy lost to Steve Stivers, and John Hall lost to Nan Hayworth.