Posted by
Roxanna M. on Thursday, September 22, 2011 11:23:28 AM
The democrats would like to retake the House in 2012. Pelosi is just itching to be speaker again. The magic number is 25 seats. Here are some assessments of their odds:
"It's
going to be a really tough battle. Democrats are all going to have to
distinguish themselves from the president." Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR)
"It didn't have to be this way. Obama's presidency has fizzled. It's going to be every person for himself in 2012. There just won't be any coattails, and any effect he does have on the ballot will hurt us." House democrat speaking anonymously.
"It's hard because we're inherently linked to the president and his number. It's got us all pessimistic." Top democratic operative close to party leadership, speaking anonymously.
Translation: We're going to have to run against Obama, not with him.
Democrat lobbyist Steve Elmendorf said, "We're only going to win if a larger wave of anger with Washington develops. And Obama has to be doing well."
Meanwhile, in the Senate, democrats are defending twice as many seats as Republicans. Democrat Kent Conrad has already thrown in the towel and announced his "retirement."
The ace-in-the-hole for Republicans, besides Obama, are population shifts and redistricting. As a direct result of the 2010 elections, Republicans are in charge of redistricting in a number of key states, such as Michigan, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
The best case scenario is a Republican president and Republican congress. The next best is Obama restrained by a Republican congress.